Publications
Publications
The Lost Marie Curies and Foregone Economic Growth
[download] (accepted at American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics)
Abstract: Women made up only 15% of U.S. inventors in 2024. Assuming no intrinsic gender differences in inventive potential, the scarcity of women in research reveals that the U.S. is missing out on some of its brightest minds. How costly is this talent misallocation for aggregate productivity? I develop a model of semi-endogenous growth in which individuals with heterogeneous talent choose between research and production careers. However, several barriers deter women from pursuing their comparative advantage. Lifting those barriers would increase U.S. income per person by 14.1% in the long run, compared with just 1.5% from a 30% R&D subsidy alone.
Race and Economic Well-Being in the United States
[download] (Joint with Chad Jones and Pete Klenow) (American Economic Review: Insights)
Abstract: We construct a measure of consumption-equivalent welfare for Black and White Americans, which incorporates life expectancy, consumption, leisure, and inequality. Based on these factors, welfare for Black Americans was 40 percent of that for White Americans in 1984 and 59 percent by 2022. There has been remarkable progress for Black Americans: The level of their consumption-equivalent welfare increased by a factor of 3.5 over the last 38 years when aggregate consumption per person only doubled. Despite this progress, the welfare gap in 2022 remains disconcertingly large at 41 percent, much larger than the 16 percent gap in consumption per person.
Working Papers
Resetting the Innovation Clock: Endogenous Growth through Technological Turnover
[download] (Joint with Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, and Timo Boppart: Submitted) – CEPR Discussion paper 20761
Abstract: We propose a model of endogenous economic growth with "weak" scale effects and diminishing returns to innovation at the micro level. In our model, entrants introduce new technologies through research and incumbents incrementally improve them through development. Over time, further improvement becomes harder such that firms ultimately run out of ideas and exit, paving the way for entrants that discover new technologies with further room for improvement. This turnover gives rise to a continuous stream of (temporary) opportunities for technological improvements that sustain economic growth. In a stationary equilibrium, the growth rate is constant and endogenous to market incentives.
Variable Markups, Incomplete Pass-Throughs, and R&D Misallocation
[download] (Joint with Mohamad Adhami and Emma Rockall)
Abstract: Assumptions about demand influence the positive and normative implications of growth models. In light of the growing evidence of variable markups and positive yet incomplete pass-throughs, we develop an endogenous growth model with a Kimball (1995) demand system. It features differentiated firms engaging in monopolistic competition and making forward-looking investments in R&D to improve their process efficiency. The model succeeds in matching the evidence on markups and pass-throughs by featuring a lower elasticity of demand at lower prices. A novel implication of our model is that market power does not only distort the overall level of innovation, but also the cross-firm allocation of R&D resources. Using firm-level administrative data from France to discipline our model, we find that this R&D misallocation slows down aggregate growth by 0.92 percentage points.
Abstract: This paper quantifies the forces behind Canada's long-run productivity growth slowdown using an industry-level accounting framework for the period 1961--2019. I decompose aggregate total-factor productivity (TFP) growth into contributions from: (1) within-industry productivity improvements, (2) structural change (Baumol effects), and (3) factor reallocation across industries. The results show that Canada's post-2000 productivity stagnation is driven almost entirely by a sharp decline in within-industry TFP growth. Structural change increasingly weighs on aggregate TFP as the economy shifts toward slower-growing resource and service sectors, though its overall magnitude remains modest. Factor reallocation contributes little throughout the sample.
Work in Progress
Capital Taxation and Misallocation: Theory and Evidence from a Large Corporate Tax Reform in France
(Joint with Antonin Bergeaud, Louis de Lachapelle, and Clément Malgouyres)
Grounds for Growth: Theory and Evidence from a Land Reform in India
(Joint with Dian Jiao and Marshall Mo)
Abstract: This paper studies the impact of land market liberalization on manufacturing firms through the staggered repeal of India's Urban Land Ceiling and Regulation Act (ULCRA), which imposed ceilings on vacant landholdings and restricted land transfers. By lifting those restrictions, the Repeal reduced land misallocation, enabling more productive firms to increase their land use and scale up production. This reallocation also fueled business dynamism: treated firms experienced a substantial increase in product turnover, while market selection improved through the exit of unprofitable firms and the entry of productive startups. Using a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics with land market frictions, we estimate that the Repeal led to a 2.7% increase in aggregate productivity and a 5% gain in consumption-equivalent welfare. These findings highlight the significant static and dynamic costs associated with land market frictions.